League One (England) · Sat, Oct 24 · 14:00 · Oxford United vs Bradford City
Likeliest: Bradford City win · 38%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 38% for the away win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Oxford United31%34%−3
OursMarket
Draw31%28%+3
OursMarket
Bradford City38%38%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 45% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 52% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 62% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 66% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 72% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 44% | 47% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Oxford United
WinDrawDrawWinDraw
- Oct 15 · at Mansfield Town (A)1-1
- Oct 10 · at Notts County (A)2-1
- Oct 6 · at Exeter City (A)2-2
- Sep 19 · v Cambridge United (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Burton Albion (H)3-0
Bradford City
WinDrawWinDrawWin
- Oct 17 · v Stevenage (H)2-0
- Oct 10 · v Leyton Orient (H)0-0
- Oct 6 · at Rotherham United (A)4-0
- Oct 3 · at Reading (A)1-1
- Sep 22 · v Newcastle United U21 (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Oxford United | Bradford City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.