Championship (England) · Sat, Jan 17 · 15:00 · Oxford United vs Bristol City
Likeliest: Bristol City win · 37%
A 37% home win. The market says 29%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Oxford United37%29%+8
OursMarket
Draw26%28%−3
OursMarket
Bristol City37%43%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 53% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 57% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 71% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 72% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 41% | +9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Oxford United
LossWinLossLossDraw
- Jan 9 · at Milton Keynes Dons (A)1-1
- Jan 1 · at Ipswich Town (A)1-2
- Dec 29 · v Swansea City (H)0-1
- Dec 26 · v Southampton (H)2-1
- Dec 20 · at Charlton Athletic (A)0-1
Bristol City
WinLossWinLossWin
- Jan 10 · v Watford (H)5-1
- Jan 4 · v Preston North End (H)0-2
- Jan 1 · v Portsmouth (H)5-0
- Dec 29 · at Millwall (A)1-2
- Dec 26 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Oxford United | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.