League One (England) · Sat, Sep 12 · 14:00 · Oxford United vs Burton Albion
Likeliest: Oxford United win · 51%
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Oxford United51%51%+1
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Burton Albion22%23%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 50% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 52% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 49% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 69% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Oxford United
LossDrawWinLossWin
- Sep 5 · at Leicester City (A)4-0
- Sep 1 · at Huddersfield Town (A)1-3
- Aug 22 · at Stevenage (A)2-1
- Aug 15 · v Milton Keynes Dons (H)2-2
- Aug 8 · at Leyton Orient (A)0-2
Burton Albion
DrawWinLossWinDraw
- Sep 5 · v Cambridge United (H)2-2
- Sep 2 · v AFC Wimbledon (H)4-1
- Aug 29 · at Notts County (A)1-2
- Aug 22 · at Leicester City (A)2-1
- Aug 15 · v Stevenage (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Oxford United | Burton Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 2-5-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.