League One (England) · Sat, Sep 19 · 14:00 · Oxford United vs Cambridge United
Likeliest: Oxford United win · 46%
A tight one: we make it 46% for the home win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Oxford United46%46%−1
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Cambridge United26%27%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 54% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 54% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 63% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Oxford United
DrawWinLossWinWin
- Sep 12 · v Burton Albion (H)3-0
- Sep 5 · at Leicester City (A)4-0
- Sep 1 · at Huddersfield Town (A)1-3
- Aug 22 · at Stevenage (A)2-1
- Aug 15 · v Milton Keynes Dons (H)2-2
Cambridge United
LossLossWinDrawWin
- Sep 12 · v Reading (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · at Burton Albion (A)2-2
- Sep 1 · at Bradford City (A)2-1
- Aug 29 · v Huddersfield Town (H)1-2
- Aug 25 · v Millwall (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Oxford United | Cambridge United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 2-7-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.