Championship (England) · Fri, Apr 3 · 14:00 · Oxford United vs Hull City
Likeliest: Oxford United win · 42%
We make it 53% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 46%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Oxford United42%39%+3
OursMarket
Draw28%28%0
OursMarket
Hull City30%33%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 46% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 53% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 67% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 61% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 72% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 54% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Oxford United
WinWinWinDrawLoss
- Mar 21 · at Southampton (A)0-2
- Mar 14 · v Charlton Athletic (H)1-1
- Mar 11 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)1-0
- Mar 6 · at Preston North End (A)3-1
- Feb 28 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)2-1
Hull City
LossLossWinLossWin
- Mar 21 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)3-1
- Mar 14 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)0-3
- Mar 10 · at Wrexham (A)2-1
- Mar 7 · v Millwall (H)1-3
- Mar 3 · at Ipswich Town (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Oxford United | Hull City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 4-0-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 7-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.