Championship (England) · Sat, Nov 22 · 15:00 · Oxford United vs Middlesbrough
Likeliest: Middlesbrough win · 43%
We make it 58% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 47%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Oxford United32%26%+6
OursMarket
Draw25%28%−3
OursMarket
Middlesbrough43%46%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 47% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 54% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 74% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 72% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 37% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Oxford United
LossWinDrawLossLoss
- Nov 8 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)1-2
- Nov 4 · v Stoke City (H)0-3
- Nov 1 · v Millwall (H)2-2
- Oct 25 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)2-1
- Oct 22 · at Wrexham (A)0-1
Middlesbrough
WinDrawLossDrawWin
- Nov 8 · v Birmingham City (H)2-1
- Nov 4 · at Leicester City (A)1-1
- Nov 1 · at Watford (A)0-3
- Oct 25 · v Wrexham (H)1-1
- Oct 22 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Oxford United | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.