League One (England) · Sat, Aug 15 · 11:30 · Oxford United vs Milton Keynes Dons
Likeliest: Milton Keynes Dons win · 38%
A 38% away win. The market says 28%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Oxford United33%43%−10
OursMarket
Draw29%29%0
OursMarket
Milton Keynes Dons38%28%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 45% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 50% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 72% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 57% | +10 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 71% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 61% | −14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Oxford United
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Aug 8 · at Leyton Orient (A)0-2
- May 2 · at Millwall (A)0-2
- Apr 25 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)4-1
- Apr 21 · v Wrexham (H)0-1
- Apr 18 · at Derby County (A)0-1
Milton Keynes Dons
WinWinWinDrawLoss
- Aug 8 · at Norwich City (A)1-4
- May 2 · at Fleetwood Town (A)1-1
- Apr 25 · v Tranmere Rovers (H)3-0
- Apr 18 · at Crewe Alexandra (A)3-1
- Apr 11 · v Bromley (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Oxford United | Milton Keynes Dons |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.