Championship (England) · Tue, Feb 10 · 19:45 · Oxford United vs Norwich City
Likeliest: Oxford United win · 40%
A 40% home win. The market says 32%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Oxford United40%32%+8
OursMarket
Draw27%29%−2
OursMarket
Norwich City33%39%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 44% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 50% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 61% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 68% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 71% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 45% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Oxford United
DrawWinLossLossDraw
- Feb 7 · at Coventry City (A)0-0
- Feb 3 · at Sheffield United (A)1-3
- Jan 31 · v Birmingham City (H)0-2
- Jan 24 · at Leicester City (A)2-1
- Jan 20 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)0-0
Norwich City
WinWinWinLossWin
- Feb 7 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)2-0
- Jan 31 · at Middlesbrough (A)0-1
- Jan 26 · v Coventry City (H)2-1
- Jan 20 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)5-0
- Jan 17 · at Wrexham (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Oxford United | Norwich City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 7-0-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.