Championship (England) · Sat, Apr 25 · 14:00 · Oxford United vs Sheffield Wednesday
Likeliest: Oxford United win · 64%
We make it 60% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 49%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Oxford United64%65%−1
OursMarket
Draw21%21%+1
OursMarket
Sheffield Wednesday15%14%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 51% | −11 |
| Both teams score | 43% | 45% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 86% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 36% | 35% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 79% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 82% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Oxford United
DrawDrawWinLossLoss
- Apr 21 · v Wrexham (H)0-1
- Apr 18 · at Derby County (A)0-1
- Apr 11 · v Watford (H)2-0
- Apr 6 · at Portsmouth (A)2-2
- Apr 3 · v Hull City (H)1-1
Sheffield Wednesday
LossDrawDrawDrawLoss
- Apr 22 · at Middlesbrough (A)0-1
- Apr 18 · v Charlton Athletic (H)1-1
- Apr 11 · at Coventry City (A)0-0
- Apr 6 · v Leicester City (H)1-1
- Apr 3 · at Stoke City (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Oxford United | Sheffield Wednesday |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 0-4-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 0-1-9 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.