Championship (England) · Mon, Dec 29 · 19:45 · Oxford United vs Swansea City
Likeliest: Oxford United win · 41%
A 41% home win. The market says 35%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Oxford United41%35%+6
OursMarket
Draw27%30%−2
OursMarket
Swansea City31%35%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 43% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 51% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 65% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 65% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 70% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 50% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Oxford United
LossDrawLossLossWin
- Dec 26 · v Southampton (H)2-1
- Dec 20 · at Charlton Athletic (A)0-1
- Dec 13 · v Preston North End (H)1-2
- Dec 9 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)1-1
- Dec 6 · at Swansea City (A)0-2
Swansea City
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Dec 26 · at Coventry City (A)0-1
- Dec 19 · v Wrexham (H)2-1
- Dec 13 · at Stoke City (A)1-2
- Dec 9 · v Portsmouth (H)1-0
- Dec 6 · v Oxford United (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Oxford United | Swansea City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 3-0-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.