Championship (England) · Sat, Apr 11 · 14:00 · Oxford United vs Watford
Likeliest: Oxford United win · 53%
A 53% home win. The market says 40%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Oxford United53%40%+14
OursMarket
Draw24%29%−5
OursMarket
Watford23%32%−9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 46% | −7 |
| Both teams score | 43% | 52% | −9 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 68% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 60% | −14 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 71% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 56% | +15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Oxford United
WinDrawLossDrawDraw
- Apr 6 · at Portsmouth (A)2-2
- Apr 3 · v Hull City (H)1-1
- Mar 21 · at Southampton (A)0-2
- Mar 14 · v Charlton Athletic (H)1-1
- Mar 11 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)1-0
Watford
LossWinDrawLossDraw
- Apr 6 · v Charlton Athletic (H)1-1
- Apr 3 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)1-2
- Mar 21 · v Leicester City (H)0-0
- Mar 17 · v Wrexham (H)3-1
- Mar 14 · at Stoke City (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Oxford United | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.