Championship (England) · Sat, Feb 28 · 15:00 · Oxford United vs West Bromwich Albion
Likeliest: Oxford United win · 45%
A 45% home win. The market says 30%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Oxford United45%30%+16
OursMarket
Draw25%30%−5
OursMarket
West Bromwich Albion30%41%−10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 41% | +12 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 48% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 59% | +10 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 70% | −16 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 70% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 42% | +18 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Oxford United
DrawLossLossDrawLoss
- Feb 25 · at Stoke City (A)1-2
- Feb 21 · at Middlesbrough (A)0-0
- Feb 15 · v Sunderland (H)0-1
- Feb 10 · v Norwich City (H)0-3
- Feb 7 · at Coventry City (A)0-0
West Bromwich Albion
DrawDrawLossLossDraw
- Feb 24 · v Charlton Athletic (H)1-1
- Feb 21 · v Coventry City (H)0-2
- Feb 14 · at Norwich City (A)1-3
- Feb 10 · at Birmingham City (A)0-0
- Feb 7 · v Stoke City (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Oxford United | West Bromwich Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 0-5-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.4 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 0-3-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Oxford United form·West Bromwich Albion form·Head-to-head record