League One (England) · Tue, Oct 20 · 18:45 · Oxford United vs Wigan Athletic
Likeliest: Oxford United win · 50%
Likely score: 1–0
We make it 55% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 44%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Oxford United50%50%0
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+1
OursMarket
Wigan Athletic23%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 56% | −11 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 53% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 68% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Oxford United
WinDrawDrawWinDraw
- Oct 15 · at Mansfield Town (A)1-1
- Oct 10 · at Notts County (A)2-1
- Oct 6 · at Exeter City (A)2-2
- Sep 19 · v Cambridge United (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Burton Albion (H)3-0
Wigan Athletic
DrawLossWinLossWin
- Oct 17 · v Reading (H)1-0
- Oct 10 · at Stevenage (A)0-1
- Sep 22 · v Blackpool (H)3-2
- Sep 19 · v Wycombe Wanderers (H)0-1
- Sep 12 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Oxford United | Wigan Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.