Championship (England) · Tue, Apr 21 · 18:45 · Oxford United vs Wrexham
Likeliest: Oxford United win · 44%
A 44% home win. The market says 38%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Oxford United44%38%+6
OursMarket
Draw26%29%−3
OursMarket
Wrexham30%33%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 45% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 52% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 67% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 62% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 53% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Oxford United
LossDrawDrawWinLoss
- Apr 18 · at Derby County (A)0-1
- Apr 11 · v Watford (H)2-0
- Apr 6 · at Portsmouth (A)2-2
- Apr 3 · v Hull City (H)1-1
- Mar 21 · at Southampton (A)0-2
Wrexham
WinDrawLossLossWin
- Apr 18 · v Stoke City (H)2-0
- Apr 12 · at Birmingham City (A)0-2
- Apr 7 · v Southampton (H)1-5
- Apr 3 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)2-2
- Mar 21 · at Sheffield United (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Oxford United | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.