Canadian Premier League (Canada) · Sun, Oct 11 · 23:00 · Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa
Likeliest: Atlético Ottawa win · 54%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 54% for the away win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Pacific FC23%26%−3
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+1
OursMarket
Atlético Ottawa54%51%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 66% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 65% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 46% | 49% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 77% | 74% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 30% | 34% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Pacific FC
LossDrawWinLossLoss
- Oct 7 · at Forge FC (A)0-3
- Oct 4 · at FC Supra Du Quebec (A)0-5
- Sep 27 · at York United FC (A)4-3
- Sep 20 · v Vancouver FC (H)1-1
- Sep 13 · v Cavalry FC (H)0-1
Atlético Ottawa
DrawLossLossWinWin
- Sep 30 · v Cavalry FC (H)3-2
- Sep 26 · at HFX Wanderers FC (A)1-0
- Sep 20 · v FC Supra Du Quebec (H)0-2
- Sep 12 · at Forge FC (A)0-3
- Sep 5 · v Pacific FC (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Pacific FC | Atlético Ottawa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-3 | 3-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.