Canadian Premier League (Canada) · Sun, Sep 13 · 22:00 · Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC
Likeliest: Cavalry FC win · 59%
A tight one: we make it 59% for the away win. The market says 58%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Pacific FC17%19%−3
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+1
OursMarket
Cavalry FC59%58%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 54% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 41% | 42% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 83% | 81% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 22% | 25% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 2.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Pacific FC
DrawLossWinDrawDraw
- Sep 9 · at York United FC (A)3-3
- Sep 5 · at Atlético Ottawa (A)0-0
- Aug 30 · v HFX Wanderers FC (H)4-3
- Aug 22 · at Forge FC (A)0-2
- Aug 15 · at Vancouver FC (A)1-1
Cavalry FC
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Sep 7 · at HFX Wanderers FC (A)3-1
- Aug 29 · v Vancouver FC (H)1-0
- Aug 22 · v Atlético Ottawa (H)3-1
- Aug 15 · v Forge FC (H)2-1
- Aug 9 · at FC Supra Du Quebec (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Pacific FC | Cavalry FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-2-2 | 3-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.