Canadian Premier League (Canada) · Sun, Oct 25 · 20:00 · Pacific FC vs Forge FC
Likeliest: Forge FC win · 55%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 64% for both teams to score. The market says 50%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Pacific FC22%11%+11
OursMarket
Draw24%18%+6
OursMarket
Forge FC55%71%−17
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 62% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 50% | +14 |
| Double chance 1X | 45% | 29% | +17 |
| Double chance X2 | 79% | 89% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 82% | −6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 28% | 13% | +15 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Pacific FC
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 17 · at Cavalry FC (A)2-4
- Oct 11 · v Atlético Ottawa (H)0-2
- Oct 7 · at Forge FC (A)0-3
- Oct 4 · at FC Supra Du Quebec (A)0-5
- Sep 27 · at York United FC (A)4-3
Forge FC
DrawDrawWinWinWin
- Oct 17 · at Atlético Ottawa (A)2-1
- Oct 12 · v York United FC (H)5-0
- Oct 7 · v Pacific FC (H)3-0
- Oct 3 · v HFX Wanderers FC (H)3-3
- Sep 26 · at Vancouver FC (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Pacific FC | Forge FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-4 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.