Canadian Premier League (Canada) · Sun, Sep 20 · 00:00 · Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC
Likeliest: Vancouver FC win · 51%
A tight one: we make it 51% for the away win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Pacific FC23%26%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+1
OursMarket
Vancouver FC51%49%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 51% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 49% | 51% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 77% | 74% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 31% | 34% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Pacific FC
LossWinDrawDrawLoss
- Sep 13 · v Cavalry FC (H)0-1
- Sep 9 · at York United FC (A)3-3
- Sep 5 · at Atlético Ottawa (A)0-0
- Aug 30 · v HFX Wanderers FC (H)4-3
- Aug 22 · at Forge FC (A)0-2
Vancouver FC
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Sep 13 · at York United FC (A)1-3
- Sep 6 · v FC Supra Du Quebec (H)3-2
- Aug 29 · at Cavalry FC (A)0-1
- Aug 22 · at HFX Wanderers FC (A)0-1
- Aug 19 · at Atlético Ottawa (A)0-4
| Last 10 games | Pacific FC | Vancouver FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-2-3 | 2-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.