Serie B (Italy) · Sun, Oct 11 · 15:15 · Padova vs Carrarese
Likeliest: Padova win · 48%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 48% for the home win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Padova48%49%−1
OursMarket
Draw29%28%+2
OursMarket
Carrarese23%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 53% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 51% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 67% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Padova
WinDrawLossWinLoss
- Sep 19 · at Palermo (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · v Ascoli (H)1-0
- Sep 6 · at Cremonese (A)1-3
- Aug 29 · v Hellas Verona (H)1-1
- Aug 23 · at Pisa (A)1-0
Carrarese
LossDrawLossLossLoss
- Sep 19 · v Benevento (H)0-1
- Sep 12 · at Catanzaro (A)0-1
- Sep 5 · v Empoli (H)0-1
- Aug 29 · at Ascoli (A)1-1
- Aug 22 · v Mantova (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Padova | Carrarese |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-3 | 0-3-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.