Serie B (Italy) · Sat, Aug 29 · 19:00 · Padova vs Hellas Verona
Likeliest: Padova win · 57%
We make it 52% for both teams to score. The market says 47%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Padova57%32%+26
OursMarket
Draw24%30%−7
OursMarket
Hellas Verona19%38%−19
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 40% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 47% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 62% | +19 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 68% | −26 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 70% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 46% | +30 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Padova
LossWin
- Aug 23 · at Pisa (A)1-0
- Aug 15 · at Udinese (A)0-1
Hellas Verona
LossDrawLossDrawLoss
- Aug 23 · v Ascoli (H)1-2
- Aug 16 · v Virtus Entella (H)2-2
- May 24 · v Roma (H)0-2
- May 17 · at Inter (A)1-1
- May 10 · v Como (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Padova | Hellas Verona |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | — | 0-4-6 |
| Goals scored a game | — | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | — | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 30% |
| Both teams scored | — | 50% |
| Clean sheets | — | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.