Serie B (Italy) · Sat, Oct 17 · 13:00 · Padova vs Virtus Entella
Likeliest: draw · 34%
Likely score: 1–1
A tight one: we make it 34% for the draw. The market says 31%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Padova34%37%−3
OursMarket
Draw34%31%+3
OursMarket
Virtus Entella32%32%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 43% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 63% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 66% | 69% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 53% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Padova
DrawLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 11 · v Carrarese (H)0-2
- Sep 19 · at Palermo (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · v Ascoli (H)1-0
- Sep 6 · at Cremonese (A)1-3
- Aug 29 · v Hellas Verona (H)1-1
Virtus Entella
LossDrawWinDrawDraw
- Oct 10 · v Juve Stabia (H)1-1
- Sep 19 · at Cremonese (A)0-0
- Sep 11 · at Pisa (A)4-1
- Sep 6 · v L.R. Vicenza (H)2-2
- Aug 29 · v Cesena (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Padova | Virtus Entella |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-4 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 29% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.