Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 22 · 16:45 · Pafos FC vs Riga FC
Likeliest: Pafos FC win · 53%
A 28% draw. The market says 23%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Pafos FC53%60%−7
OursMarket
Draw28%23%+5
OursMarket
Riga FC19%17%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 51% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 83% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 40% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 77% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 78% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Pafos FC
WinLossWinLossDraw
- Oct 19 · v APOEL Nicosia (H)0-0
- Oct 15 · at Atalanta (A)1-3
- Oct 11 · at Anorthosis Famagusta (A)3-1
- Sep 18 · v AEL Limassol (H)0-2
- Sep 13 · at AEK Larnaca (A)1-0
Riga FC
WinDrawDrawWinDraw
- Oct 15 · v Kairat (H)1-1
- Aug 27 · v Klaksvíkar Ítróttarfelag (H)2-1
- Aug 20 · at Klaksvíkar Ítróttarfelag (A)0-0
- Aug 13 · at ETO FC Győr (A)1-1
- Aug 6 · v ETO FC Győr (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Pafos FC | Riga FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 4-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 44% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 22% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-5-2 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.