K League 2 (South Korea) · Sat, Oct 10 · 05:00 · Paju Citizen FC vs Busan I Park
Likeliest: Busan I Park win · 48%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 48% for the away win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Paju Citizen FC24%27%−3
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+2
OursMarket
Busan I Park48%46%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 56% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 52% | 54% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 76% | 73% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 33% | 37% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Paju Citizen FC
WinDrawLossDrawWin
- Sep 20 · at Gimhae City FC (A)2-0
- Sep 4 · v Daegu FC (H)0-0
- Aug 29 · at Gyeongnam FC (A)0-1
- Aug 23 · at Seoul E-Land FC (A)1-1
- Aug 16 · v Seongnam FC (H)2-1
Busan I Park
DrawLossLossWinLoss
- Sep 19 · at Gimpo FC (A)0-1
- Sep 13 · v Gimhae City FC (H)2-0
- Sep 5 · v Ansan Greeners FC (H)0-1
- Aug 30 · at Suwon FC (A)1-2
- Aug 22 · at Daegu FC (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Paju Citizen FC | Busan I Park |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 1-2-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-1-4 | 0-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.