K League 2 (South Korea) · Sun, Oct 25 · 07:30 · Paju Citizen FC vs Hwaseong FC
Likeliest: Hwaseong FC win · 53%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 53% for the away win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Paju Citizen FC19%24%−4
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Hwaseong FC53%50%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 49% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 47% | 50% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 81% | 76% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 27% | 32% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Paju Citizen FC
LossDrawWinDrawLoss
- Oct 17 · at Gimpo FC (A)1-4
- Oct 10 · v Busan I Park (H)1-1
- Sep 20 · at Gimhae City FC (A)2-0
- Sep 4 · v Daegu FC (H)0-0
- Aug 29 · at Gyeongnam FC (A)0-1
Hwaseong FC
DrawWinDrawLossLoss
- Oct 18 · at Suwon Samsung Bluewings (A)2-3
- Oct 9 · at Suwon FC (A)0-1
- Sep 20 · at Seongnam FC (A)2-2
- Sep 12 · at Ansan Greeners FC (A)2-0
- Sep 5 · at Cheonan City FC (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Paju Citizen FC | Hwaseong FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-2-4 | 2-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.