NB I (Hungary) · Sat, Oct 17 · 15:00 · Paksi FC vs ETO FC Győr
Likeliest: Paksi FC win · 46%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 46% for the home win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Paksi FC46%49%−3
OursMarket
Draw25%23%+2
OursMarket
ETO FC Győr29%28%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 71% | −7 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 68% | 71% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 72% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 51% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 77% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 63% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Paksi FC
DrawLossWinWinWin
- Oct 10 · v MTK Budapest (H)3-0
- Sep 19 · at Kisvárda FC (A)1-0
- Sep 12 · at Kazincbarcikai SC (A)2-1
- Sep 5 · v Debreceni VSC (H)2-4
- Aug 29 · at Nyiregyháza Spartacus (A)1-1
ETO FC Győr
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Oct 11 · v Puskás Akadémia (H)0-1
- Sep 20 · at MTK Budapest (A)2-1
- Sep 13 · at Karcagi SC (A)5-1
- Sep 6 · v Budapest Honvéd FC (H)3-2
- Sep 3 · v Ferencváros TC (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | Paksi FC | ETO FC Győr |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-2 | 3-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.