NB I (Hungary) · Sun, Jul 26 · 18:00 · Paksi FC vs Ferencváros TC
Likeliest: Ferencváros TC win · 41%
We make it 73% for both teams to score. The market says 62%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Paksi FC36%27%+9
OursMarket
Draw23%24%−2
OursMarket
Ferencváros TC41%49%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 63% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 73% | 62% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 51% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 73% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 76% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 35% | +11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Paksi FC
Loss
- Jul 23 · v Panathinaikos (H)1-2
Ferencváros TC
WinWinWin
- Jul 23 · at FC Twente (A)2-1
- Jul 16 · v FK Vojvodina (H)3-0
- Jul 9 · at FK Vojvodina (A)2-1