NB I (Hungary) · Sat, Oct 10 · 17:30 · Paksi FC vs MTK Budapest
Likeliest: Paksi FC win · 47%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 47% for the home win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Paksi FC47%47%0
OursMarket
Draw22%22%0
OursMarket
MTK Budapest31%31%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 69% | 72% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 60% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 2.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Paksi FC
WinDrawLossWinWin
- Sep 19 · at Kisvárda FC (A)1-0
- Sep 12 · at Kazincbarcikai SC (A)2-1
- Sep 5 · v Debreceni VSC (H)2-4
- Aug 29 · at Nyiregyháza Spartacus (A)1-1
- Aug 21 · v Újpest (H)2-0
MTK Budapest
WinDrawLossWinLoss
- Sep 20 · v ETO FC Győr (H)1-2
- Sep 12 · at Mezőkövesd Zsóry (A)2-0
- Sep 5 · v Kisvárda FC (H)1-2
- Aug 28 · at Debreceni VSC (A)2-2
- Aug 22 · v Nyiregyháza Spartacus (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Paksi FC | MTK Budapest |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 3-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 78% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 78% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 22% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-2 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.