Coppa Italia (Italy) · Thu, Sep 3 · 16:00 · Palermo vs Mantova
Likeliest: Palermo win · 51%
A 25% away win. The market says 19%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Palermo51%57%−7
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Mantova25%19%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 50% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 81% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 43% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 75% | −8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Palermo
LossWinWinWinWin
- Aug 30 · at Arezzo (A)3-2
- Aug 23 · v Juve Stabia (H)1-0
- Aug 17 · v Lecce (H)2-0
- May 20 · v Catanzaro (H)2-0
- May 17 · at Catanzaro (A)0-3
Mantova
WinLossWinWinWin
- Aug 30 · v Empoli (H)3-1
- Aug 22 · at Carrarese (A)2-1
- Aug 16 · at Lazio (A)2-0
- May 8 · at Frosinone (A)0-5
- May 1 · v Monza (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | Palermo | Mantova |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 7-0-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-1-0 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.