Primera División (Chile) · Sun, Oct 25 · 20:30 · Palestino vs Colo Colo
Likeliest: Colo Colo win · 46%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 46% for the away win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Palestino26%29%−3
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+2
OursMarket
Colo Colo46%46%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 57% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 59% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 54% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 36% | 38% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Palestino
WinLossWinLossDraw
- Oct 11 · at Deportes Limache (A)2-2
- Sep 12 · v Universidad Católica (H)2-3
- Sep 6 · v Universidad de Concepción (H)2-1
- Aug 28 · at Cobresal (A)0-2
- Aug 23 · at O'Higgins (A)1-0
Colo Colo
WinWinDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 11 · at Coquimbo Unido (A)2-5
- Sep 13 · v Deportes Concepción (H)1-1
- Sep 6 · at Huachipato (A)0-0
- Aug 30 · v Audax Italiano (H)5-1
- Aug 23 · at Universidad de Chile (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Palestino | Colo Colo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 5-1-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.