Primera División (Chile) · Sat, Aug 1 · 21:30 · Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido
Likeliest: Palestino win · 36%
We make it 62% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 56%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Palestino36%35%+1
OursMarket
Draw32%30%+2
OursMarket
Coquimbo Unido33%36%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 44% | −7 |
| Both teams score | 43% | 50% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 64% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 65% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 70% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 49% | +3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Palestino
LossDrawDrawWinLoss
- Jul 26 · at Ñublense (A)0-2
- Jun 13 · at Everton de Viña del Mar (A)2-1
- Jun 1 · v Audax Italiano (H)0-0
- May 26 · v Deportivo Riestra (H)1-1
- May 21 · at Grêmio (A)0-2
Coquimbo Unido
WinWinLossWinDraw
- Jun 13 · v O'Higgins (H)0-0
- May 31 · at Deportes Limache (A)3-2
- May 27 · at Nacional (A)0-1
- May 19 · v Deportes Tolima (H)3-0
- May 8 · v Universitario (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Palestino | Coquimbo Unido |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 4-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.5 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 38% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 38% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-3 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.