Serie A (Brazil) · Fri, Oct 9 · 00:30 · Palmeiras vs Bahia
Likeliest: Palmeiras win · 62%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 62% for the home win. The market says 61%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Palmeiras62%61%+1
OursMarket
Draw22%22%0
OursMarket
Bahia16%17%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 53% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 83% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 39% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 78% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Palmeiras
DrawWinWinLossDraw
- Sep 20 · at Grêmio (A)0-0
- Sep 16 · at LDU (A)2-3
- Sep 12 · v São Paulo (H)2-0
- Sep 9 · v LDU (H)1-0
- Sep 6 · at Botafogo (A)0-0
Bahia
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Sep 20 · at Athletico (A)1-2
- Sep 14 · v Remo (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · at Red Bull Bragantino (A)3-2
- Aug 30 · v Internacional (H)3-2
- Aug 23 · at Vitória (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Palmeiras | Bahia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 4-5-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.5 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 70% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.