Copa Libertadores (South America) · Wed, Aug 12 · 22:00 · Palmeiras vs Cerro Porteño
Likeliest: Palmeiras win · 65%
We make it 62% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 51%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Palmeiras65%72%−7
OursMarket
Draw22%19%+4
OursMarket
Cerro Porteño13%9%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 49% | −10 |
| Both teams score | 41% | 38% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 91% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 35% | 28% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 81% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 84% | 89% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Palmeiras
LossWinWinLossDraw
- Aug 9 · v Internacional (H)0-0
- Aug 6 · at Fortaleza (A)2-3
- Aug 2 · v Fortaleza (H)3-0
- Jul 30 · at Vitória (A)4-0
- Jul 26 · v Atlético Mineiro (H)1-2
Cerro Porteño
WinWinWinWinWin
- May 28 · v Club Sporting Cristal (H)2-0
- May 28 · v Sporting Cristal (H)2-0
- May 24 · v Rubio Ñu (H)2-0
- May 21 · at Palmeiras (A)1-0
- May 8 · at Junior FC (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Palmeiras | Cerro Porteño |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 10% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 70% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 5-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.