Copa Libertadores (South America) · Thu, Oct 22 · 00:30 · Palmeiras vs Fluminense
Likeliest: Palmeiras win · 48%
We make it 54% for both teams to score. The market says 49%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Palmeiras48%49%0
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Fluminense24%25%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 44% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 49% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 51% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Palmeiras
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Oct 17 · at Athletico (A)2-0
- Oct 15 · at Fluminense (A)2-1
- Oct 11 · v Corinthians (H)4-1
- Oct 9 · v Bahia (H)1-0
- Sep 20 · at Grêmio (A)0-0
Fluminense
WinWinLossLossLoss
- Oct 18 · v Santos (H)1-2
- Oct 15 · v Palmeiras (H)1-2
- Oct 11 · at Flamengo (A)0-1
- Oct 9 · v Coritiba (H)4-0
- Sep 20 · at Corinthians (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Palmeiras | Fluminense |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.5 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 70% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 1-6-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.