Copa do Brasil (Brazil) · Sun, Aug 2 · 19:00 · Palmeiras vs Fortaleza
Likeliest: Palmeiras win · 74%
We make it 42% for both teams to score. The market says 36%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Palmeiras74%79%−5
OursMarket
Draw17%16%+2
OursMarket
Fortaleza9%6%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 53% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 42% | 36% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 91% | 94% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 26% | 21% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 84% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 89% | 93% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Palmeiras
WinWinWinLossWin
- Jul 30 · at Vitória (A)4-0
- Jul 26 · v Atlético Mineiro (H)1-2
- Jul 22 · at Coritiba (A)3-1
- May 31 · v Chapecoense (H)1-0
- May 28 · v Junior Barranquilla (H)4-1
Fortaleza
LossLossWinLossWin
- Jul 29 · v Botafogo-SP (H)1-0
- Jul 22 · at Vila Nova FC (A)1-2
- Jul 18 · v Novorizontino (H)1-0
- Jul 12 · at Atlético GO (A)0-1
- Jul 12 · at Atlético Goianiense (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Palmeiras | Fortaleza |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.