Copa Libertadores (South America) · Wed, Sep 9 · 22:00 · Palmeiras vs LDU
Likeliest: Palmeiras win · 57%
A 21% away win. The market says 6%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Palmeiras57%76%−20
OursMarket
Draw23%17%+5
OursMarket
LDU21%6%+14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 49% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 35% | +13 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 94% | −14 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 24% | +20 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 83% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 92% | −19 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Palmeiras
WinWinDrawDrawDraw
- Sep 6 · at Botafogo (A)0-0
- Sep 3 · at Santos (A)0-0
- Aug 30 · at Mirassol (A)1-1
- Aug 27 · v Santos (H)3-0
- Aug 23 · v Vasco da Gama (H)4-1
LDU
DrawWinLossDrawWin
- Sep 5 · at Técnico Universitario (A)3-1
- Sep 2 · v Mushuc Runa (H)0-0
- Aug 29 · at Guayaquil City (A)1-2
- Aug 24 · v Emelec (H)2-0
- Aug 20 · v Mirassol (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Palmeiras | LDU |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 3-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.