Serie A (Brazil) · Sat, Oct 24 · 21:30 · Palmeiras vs Red Bull Bragantino
Likeliest: Palmeiras win · 64%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 64% for the home win. The market says 61%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Palmeiras64%61%+3
OursMarket
Draw22%23%−1
OursMarket
Red Bull Bragantino14%16%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 86% | 84% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 36% | 39% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 82% | 79% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Palmeiras
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Oct 17 · at Athletico (A)2-0
- Oct 15 · at Fluminense (A)2-1
- Oct 11 · v Corinthians (H)4-1
- Oct 9 · v Bahia (H)1-0
- Sep 20 · at Grêmio (A)0-0
Red Bull Bragantino
LossLossDrawWinDraw
- Oct 18 · at Remo (A)1-1
- Oct 13 · v Cruzeiro (H)4-2
- Oct 7 · v Mirassol (H)1-1
- Oct 3 · at Atlético Mineiro (A)0-1
- Sep 20 · at Flamengo (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Palmeiras | Red Bull Bragantino |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.5 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 70% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 1-6-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.