Copa do Brasil (Brazil) · Thu, Aug 27 · 00:30 · Palmeiras vs Santos
Likeliest: Palmeiras win · 67%
We make it 63% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 51%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Palmeiras67%63%+4
OursMarket
Draw20%23%−3
OursMarket
Santos14%15%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 51% | +12 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 48% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 86% | 85% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 34% | 37% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 77% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 83% | 81% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Palmeiras
DrawDrawLossWinWin
- Aug 23 · v Vasco da Gama (H)4-1
- Aug 19 · at Cerro Porteño (A)1-0
- Aug 15 · at Fluminense (A)2-3
- Aug 12 · v Cerro Porteño (H)0-0
- Aug 9 · v Internacional (H)0-0
Santos
LossWinWinDrawDraw
- Aug 23 · v Mirassol (H)1-1
- Aug 20 · at Macará (A)0-0
- Aug 16 · at Vasco da Gama (A)3-0
- Aug 13 · v Macará (H)2-1
- Aug 9 · v Athletico (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Palmeiras | Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.