Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 15 · 16:45 · Panathinaikos vs FK Borac Banja Luka
Likeliest: Panathinaikos win · 74%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 74% for the home win. The market says 71%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Panathinaikos74%71%+3
OursMarket
Draw17%18%−1
OursMarket
FK Borac Banja Luka9%11%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 49% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 91% | 89% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 26% | 29% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 82% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 89% | 87% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Panathinaikos
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Oct 11 · at Olympiacos FC (A)0-1
- Sep 20 · at PS Kalamata (A)1-0
- Sep 16 · at AE Kifisia (A)2-0
- Sep 13 · v Panetolikos (H)3-0
- Sep 10 · v AE Kifisia (H)3-1
FK Borac Banja Luka
DrawWinLossWinDraw
- Aug 27 · v Víkingur Reykjavík (H)0-0
- Aug 20 · at Víkingur Reykjavík (A)3-1
- Aug 13 · at ML Vitebsk (A)0-1
- Aug 6 · v ML Vitebsk (H)1-0
- Jul 30 · at FC Petrocub Hîncesti (A)3-3
| Last 10 games | Panathinaikos | FK Borac Banja Luka |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 3-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 38% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 38% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-5-1 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.