Super League (Greece) · Sun, Sep 6 · 18:30 · Panathinaikos vs PAOK
Likeliest: Panathinaikos win · 54%
A 54% home win. The market says 39%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Panathinaikos54%39%+15
OursMarket
Draw23%29%−6
OursMarket
PAOK23%32%−9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 47% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 52% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 68% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 61% | −15 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 71% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 55% | +15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Panathinaikos
DrawDrawDrawWinWin
- Sep 3 · v Niki Volou (H)1-0
- Aug 31 · at APO Levadiakos (A)2-0
- Aug 27 · at FC Hradec Králové (A)1-1
- Aug 20 · v FC Hradec Králové (H)2-2
- Aug 11 · at FC CSKA 1948 Sofia (A)1-1
PAOK
DrawWinLossWinDraw
- Sep 2 · v OFI Crete (H)0-0
- Aug 30 · at Atromitos Athens (A)2-1
- Aug 27 · at SK Brann (A)2-3
- Aug 23 · v APO Levadiakos (H)4-0
- Aug 20 · v SK Brann (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Panathinaikos | PAOK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-6-1 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-6-1 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.