Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Aug 30 · 13:00 · Paris FC vs Nice
Likeliest: Paris FC win · 75%
We make it 62% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 50%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Paris FC75%44%+30
OursMarket
Draw16%27%−12
OursMarket
Nice9%28%−19
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 50% | −12 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 54% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 91% | 72% | +19 |
| Double chance X2 | 25% | 56% | −30 |
| Double chance 12 | 84% | 73% | +11 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 89% | 61% | +28 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Paris FC
Draw
- Aug 22 · at Troyes (A)0-0
Nice
DrawLossDrawWinDraw
- Aug 22 · v Lorient (H)0-0
- May 29 · v Saint-Étienne (H)4-1
- May 26 · at Saint-Étienne (A)0-0
- May 22 · at Lens (A)1-3
- May 17 · v Metz (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Paris FC | Nice |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | — | 2-6-2 |
| Goals scored a game | — | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | — | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 30% |
| Both teams scored | — | 50% |
| Clean sheets | — | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.