Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Sep 12 · 18:45 · Paris FC vs Olympique Lyonnais
Likeliest: Olympique Lyonnais win · 37%
A tight one: we make it 37% for the away win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Paris FC35%36%−1
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+2
OursMarket
Olympique Lyonnais37%38%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 61% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 62% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 64% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 49% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Paris FC
DrawWinWin
- Sep 6 · at Olympique de Marseille (A)3-2
- Aug 30 · v Nice (H)3-0
- Aug 22 · at Troyes (A)0-0
Olympique Lyonnais
DrawWinLossDrawWin
- Sep 4 · v Auxerre (H)3-1
- Aug 29 · v Le Havre (H)1-1
- Aug 26 · v Fenerbahçe (H)1-2
- Aug 22 · at Toulouse (A)2-0
- Aug 18 · at Fenerbahçe (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Paris FC | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | — | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | — | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | — | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 70% |
| Both teams scored | — | 70% |
| Clean sheets | — | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.