Champions League (Europe) · Sat, May 30 · 16:00 · Paris Saint Germain vs Arsenal
Likeliest: Paris Saint Germain win · 49%
We make it 60% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 48%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Paris Saint Germain49%41%+9
OursMarket
Draw25%29%−4
OursMarket
Arsenal25%30%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 48% | +12 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 53% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 70% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 59% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 71% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 57% | +9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Paris Saint Germain
DrawDrawWinWinLoss
- May 17 · at Paris (A)1-2
- May 13 · at Lens (A)2-0
- May 10 · v Brest (H)1-0
- May 6 · at FC Bayern München (A)1-1
- May 2 · v Lorient (H)2-2
Arsenal
WinWinWinWinWin
- May 24 · at Crystal Palace (A)2-1
- May 18 · v Burnley (H)1-0
- May 10 · at West Ham United (A)1-0
- May 5 · v Atlético Madrid (H)1-0
- May 2 · v Fulham (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Paris Saint Germain | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.