Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, May 10 · 19:00 · Paris Saint Germain vs Brest
Likeliest: Paris Saint Germain win · 75%
We make it 60% for both teams to score. The market says 50%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Paris Saint Germain75%81%−6
OursMarket
Draw16%12%+4
OursMarket
Brest9%7%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 72% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 50% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 91% | 93% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 25% | 19% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 84% | 88% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 89% | 92% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Paris Saint Germain
WinWinWinDrawDraw
- May 6 · at FC Bayern München (A)1-1
- May 2 · v Lorient (H)2-2
- Apr 28 · v FC Bayern München (H)5-4
- Apr 25 · at Angers SCO (A)3-0
- Apr 22 · v Nantes (H)3-0
Brest
LossLossDrawDrawLoss
- May 3 · at Paris (A)0-4
- Apr 24 · v Lens (H)3-3
- Apr 19 · at Nantes (A)1-1
- Apr 4 · v Rennes (H)3-4
- Mar 21 · at Auxerre (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Paris Saint Germain | Brest |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.