Champions League (Europe) · Tue, Apr 28 · 19:00 · Paris Saint Germain vs FC Bayern München
Likeliest: Paris Saint Germain win · 43%
We make it 75% for both teams to score. The market says 70%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Paris Saint Germain43%39%+3
OursMarket
Draw23%25%−2
OursMarket
FC Bayern München34%36%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 68% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 75% | 70% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 64% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 61% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 52% | +3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Paris Saint Germain
WinWinLossWinWin
- Apr 25 · at Angers SCO (A)3-0
- Apr 22 · v Nantes (H)3-0
- Apr 19 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)1-2
- Apr 14 · at Liverpool (A)2-0
- Apr 8 · v Liverpool (H)2-0
FC Bayern München
WinWinWinWinWin
- Apr 25 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)4-3
- Apr 22 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)2-0
- Apr 19 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)4-2
- Apr 15 · v Real Madrid (H)4-3
- Apr 11 · at St. Pauli (A)5-0
| Last 10 games | Paris Saint Germain | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-0-2 | 9-1-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.7 | 3.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 8-2-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.