Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Nov 22 · 20:05 · Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre
Likeliest: Paris Saint Germain win · 66%
A 16% away win. The market says 6%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Paris Saint Germain66%81%−15
OursMarket
Draw19%13%+6
OursMarket
Le Havre16%6%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 64% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 94% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 34% | 19% | +15 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 87% | −6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 93% | −12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Paris Saint Germain
WinDrawWinLossWin
- Nov 9 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)3-2
- Nov 4 · v FC Bayern München (H)1-2
- Nov 1 · v Nice (H)1-0
- Oct 29 · at Lorient (A)1-1
- Oct 25 · at Brest (A)3-0
Le Havre
LossWinWinDrawDraw
- Nov 8 · v Nantes (H)1-1
- Nov 2 · at Toulouse (A)0-0
- Oct 29 · v Brest (H)1-0
- Oct 26 · at Auxerre (A)1-0
- Oct 18 · at Olympique Marseille (A)2-6
| Last 10 games | Paris Saint Germain | Le Havre |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.