Champions League (Europe) · Wed, Apr 8 · 19:00 · Paris Saint Germain vs Liverpool
Likeliest: Paris Saint Germain win · 65%
A 65% home win. The market says 54%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Paris Saint Germain65%54%+11
OursMarket
Draw19%23%−4
OursMarket
Liverpool16%23%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 64% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 63% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 77% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 35% | 46% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 77% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 70% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Paris Saint Germain
LossWinWinWinWin
- Apr 3 · v Toulouse (H)3-1
- Mar 21 · at Nice (A)4-0
- Mar 17 · at Chelsea (A)3-0
- Mar 11 · v Chelsea (H)5-2
- Mar 6 · v Monaco (H)1-3
Liverpool
LossDrawDrawLossLoss
- Apr 5 · v Deportivo Maldonado (H)0-2
- Apr 4 · at Manchester City (A)0-4
- Mar 31 · at Atlético Progreso (A)3-3
- Mar 24 · v Central Español (H)3-3
- Mar 21 · at Racing (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Paris Saint Germain | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 1-4-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.