Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, May 2 · 15:00 · Paris Saint Germain vs Lorient
Likeliest: Paris Saint Germain win · 71%
We make it 76% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 67%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Paris Saint Germain71%71%0
OursMarket
Draw17%17%−1
OursMarket
Lorient13%12%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 76% | 67% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 65% | 56% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 88% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 29% | 29% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 84% | 83% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 85% | 85% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Paris Saint Germain
WinLossWinWinWin
- Apr 28 · v FC Bayern München (H)5-4
- Apr 25 · at Angers SCO (A)3-0
- Apr 22 · v Nantes (H)3-0
- Apr 19 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)1-2
- Apr 14 · at Liverpool (A)2-0
Lorient
LossDrawLossWinLoss
- Apr 26 · v Strasbourg (H)2-3
- Apr 18 · v Olympique Marseille (H)2-0
- Apr 12 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)0-2
- Apr 5 · v Paris (H)1-1
- Mar 21 · at Toulouse (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Paris Saint Germain | Lorient |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 9-0-1 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.1 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.