Ligue 1 (France) · Fri, Jan 16 · 20:00 · Paris Saint Germain vs LOSC Lille
Likeliest: Paris Saint Germain win · 67%
A tight one: we make it 67% for the home win. The market says 66%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Paris Saint Germain67%66%+1
OursMarket
Draw18%19%−1
OursMarket
LOSC Lille15%14%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 63% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 56% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 86% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 33% | 34% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 81% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 82% | 82% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Paris Saint Germain
WinDrawWinWinLoss
- Jan 12 · v Paris (H)0-1
- Jan 4 · v Paris (H)2-1
- Dec 20 · at Fontenay Vendée Foot (A)4-0
- Dec 17 · v Flamengo (H)1-1
- Dec 13 · at Metz (A)3-2
LOSC Lille
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Jan 11 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)1-2
- Jan 3 · v Rennes (H)0-2
- Dec 20 · at St Maur Lusitanos (A)1-0
- Dec 14 · at Auxerre (A)4-3
- Dec 11 · at Young Boys (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Paris Saint Germain | LOSC Lille |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 6-0-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 5-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Paris Saint Germain form·LOSC Lille form·Head-to-head record