Champions League (Europe) · Wed, Feb 25 · 20:00 · Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco
Likeliest: Paris Saint Germain win · 61%
A 19% away win. The market says 10%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Paris Saint Germain61%76%−15
OursMarket
Draw20%14%+6
OursMarket
Monaco19%10%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 72% | −9 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 57% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 90% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 39% | 24% | +15 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 86% | −6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 89% | −12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Paris Saint Germain
WinWinLossWinWin
- Feb 21 · v Metz (H)3-0
- Feb 17 · at Monaco (A)3-2
- Feb 13 · at Rennes (A)1-3
- Feb 8 · v Olympique Marseille (H)5-0
- Feb 1 · at Strasbourg (A)2-1
Monaco
LossDrawWinLossWin
- Feb 21 · at Lens (A)3-2
- Feb 17 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)2-3
- Feb 13 · v Nantes (H)3-1
- Feb 8 · at Nice (A)0-0
- Feb 5 · at Strasbourg (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Paris Saint Germain | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.