Ligue 1 (France) · Fri, Mar 6 · 19:45 · Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco
Likeliest: Paris Saint Germain win · 60%
We make it 36% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 28%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Paris Saint Germain60%70%−10
OursMarket
Draw20%16%+4
OursMarket
Monaco20%13%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 72% | −8 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 87% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 30% | +10 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 84% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 84% | −9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Paris Saint Germain
LossWinWinDrawWin
- Feb 28 · at Le Havre (A)1-0
- Feb 25 · v Monaco (H)2-2
- Feb 21 · v Metz (H)3-0
- Feb 17 · at Monaco (A)3-2
- Feb 13 · at Rennes (A)1-3
Monaco
WinLossWinDrawWin
- Feb 28 · v Angers SCO (H)2-0
- Feb 25 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)2-2
- Feb 21 · at Lens (A)3-2
- Feb 17 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)2-3
- Feb 13 · v Nantes (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Paris Saint Germain | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.